U.S. Tsunami Preparedness:
Federal and State Partners Collaborate to Help Communities Reduce Potential Impacts, but Significant Challenges Remain
GAO-06-519: Published: Jun 5, 2006. Publicly Released: Jun 5, 2006.
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami raised questions about U.S. preparedness for such an event. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) leads U.S. detection and warning efforts and partners with federal and state agencies in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to reduce tsunami risks. In 2005, Congress appropriated $17.24 million in supplemental funding to enhance these efforts. This report (1) identifies U.S. coastal areas facing the greatest tsunami hazard and the extent to which potential impacts have been assessed, (2) discusses the effectiveness of the existing federal tsunami warning system, (3) describes efforts to mitigate the potential impacts of tsunamis on coastal communities, and (4) assesses NOAA's efforts to develop long-range plans for federal tsunami programs.
NOAA has determined that the Pacific coast states of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, as well as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in the Caribbean Sea, face the greatest tsunami hazard. The east and Gulf coasts are relatively low-hazard areas. While high-hazard areas have been identified, limited information exists on the likely impacts of a tsunami in those areas. Some coastal areas lack inundation maps showing the potential extent of tsunami flooding in communities, and others have maps that may be unreliable. State assessments of likely tsunami impacts on people and infrastructure have been limited, in part, due to a lack of tsunami loss estimation software, as exists for floods and other hazards. Although federal warning centers quickly detect potential tsunamis and issue warnings, false alarms and warning system limitations hamper their effectiveness. Some state and local emergency managers have raised concerns about false alarms--the 16 warnings issued since 1982 were not followed by destructive tsunamis on U.S. shores--potentially causing citizens to ignore future warnings. Furthermore, limitations in the Emergency Alert System and NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards may impede timely warnings to communities. For example, signal coverage for these two systems is insufficient to transmit warnings to some coastal areas and failure to properly activate them has resulted in warnings being delayed or not transmitted to some locations. NOAA has begun addressing false alarms but, according to agency officials, lacking the states' permission elsewhere, has only conducted "live" end-to-end testing of the warning systems in Alaska to identify problems. The at-risk communities GAO visited have mitigated potential tsunami impacts through planning, warning system improvements, public education, and infrastructure protection, but the level of implementation varies considerably by location. Most of the states and some communities GAO visited have basic mitigation plans identifying tsunami hazards. While all of these locations have multiple warning mechanisms in place, disruptions to key infrastructure such as telephone lines may hamper timely warnings. Furthermore, key educational efforts, such as distributing evacuation maps and developing school curricula have not been consistently implemented. In addition, few states and communities protect critical infrastructure from tsunamis through land-use and building design restrictions. Emergency managers attributed variability in their efforts to the need to focus on more frequent hazards like wildfires and to funding limitations. Furthermore, few communities participate in NOAA's preparedness program, according to NOAA officials, because they perceive the threat of a tsunami to be low. The nationwide expansion of NOAA's tsunami-related activities and NTHMP is under way; however, the future direction of these efforts is uncertain because they lack long-range strategic plans. NOAA has yet to identify long-range goals, establish risk-based priorities, and define performance measures to assess whether its tsunami-related efforts are achieving the desired results.
Contact:
http://www.gao.gov/assets/260/250363.pdf
***
What GAO Found
United States Government Accountability
Office
Why GAO Did This Study
Highlights
Accountability Integrity
Reliability
June 2006
U.S. TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS
Federal and State Partners
Collaborate to
Help Communities Reduce
Potential
Impacts, but Significant
Challenges Remain
Highlights of GAO-06-519, a report to congressional committees and Senator Dianne Feinstein
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
raised questions about U.S.
preparedness for such an event.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) leads U.S.
detection and
warning efforts and partners
with federal and state agencies in the National Tsunami Hazard
Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to
reduce tsunami risks. In 2005, Congress appropriated $17.24
million in supplemental
funding to enhance these efforts.
This report (1) identifies U.S. coastal
areas facing the greatest tsunami hazard and the extent to
which potential impacts have
been assessed, (2) discusses the effectiveness of the existing federal
tsunami warning system, (3) describes
efforts to mitigate the potential impacts of tsunamis on
coastal communities, and (4) assesses
NOAA’s efforts to develop long-range plans for federal
tsunami programs.
What GAO Recommends
GAO recommends, among other things,
that NOAA take steps to develop software for tsunami loss
estimation, conduct periodic
endto-end warning system tests, increase high-risk community
participation in its tsunami preparedness
program and prepare risk-based strategic plans for its
efforts. NOAA reviewed a
draft of this report and generally agreed with the findings and
recommendations.
NOAA has determined that the
Pacific coast states of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington,
as well as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in the Caribbean
Sea, face the greatest tsunami hazard. The east and Gulf coasts
are relatively low-hazard areas. While high-hazard areas have been identified,
limited information exists on the likely impacts of a tsunami in those areas.
Some coastal areas lack inundation maps showing the potential extent of tsunami
flooding in communities, and others have mapsthat may be unreliable. State
assessments of likely tsunami impacts on people and infrastructure have been
limited, in part, due to a lack of tsunami loss estimation software, as exists
for floods and other hazards.Although federal warning
centers quickly detect potential tsunamis and issue warnings, false alarms and
warning system limitations hamper their effectiveness. Some state and local
emergency managers have raised concerns about false alarms—the 16 warnings
issued since 1982 were not followed by destructive tsunamis on U.S.
shores—potentially causing citizens to ignore future warnings. Furthermore,
limitations in the Emergency Alert System and NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards
may impede timely warnings to communities. For example, signal coverage for
these two systems is insufficient to transmit warnings to some coastal areas
and failure to properly activate them has resulted in warnings being delayed or
not
transmitted to some
locations. NOAA has begun addressing false alarms but, according to agency
officials, lacking the states’ permission elsewhere, has only conducted “live”
end-to-end testing of the warning systems in Alaska to identify problems.
The at-risk communities GAO
visited have mitigated potential tsunami impacts through planning, warning
system improvements, public education, and infrastructure protection, but the
level of implementation varies considerably by location. Most of the states and
some communities GAO visited have basic mitigation plans identifying tsunami
hazards. While all of these locations have multiple warning mechanisms in
place, disruptions to key infrastructure such as telephone lines may hamper
timely warnings.
Furthermore, key educational
efforts, such as distributing evacuation maps and developing school curricula
have not been consistently implemented. In addition, few states and communities
protect critical infrastructure from tsunamis through land-use and building
design restrictions. Emergency managers attributed variability in their efforts
to the need to focus on more frequent hazards like wildfires and to funding
limitations. Furthermore, few communities participate in NOAA’s preparedness
program, according to NOAA officials, because they perceive the threat of a
tsunami to be low.
The nationwide expansion of NOAA’s tsunami-related activities and NTHMP is under way; however, the future direction of these efforts is uncertain because they lack long-range strategic plans. NOAA has yet to identify longrange goals, establish risk-based priorities, and define performance measures to assess whether its tsunami-related efforts are achieving the desired results.
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-519.
To view the full product, including the scope
and methodology, click on the link above.
For more information, contact Anu Mittal at
***********
United
States Government Accountability Office
GAO Report to Congressional Committees and Senator Dianne
Feinstein
June 2006 U.S. TSUNAMI
PREPAREDNESS
Federal and State
Partners Collaborate
to Help Communities
Reduce Potential
Impacts,
but
Significant
Challenges
Remain
GAO-06-519
What GAO
Found
United States Government Accountability Office
Why GAO
Did This Study
Highlights
Accountability
Integrity Reliability
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-519.
To view the full product, including the scope
and
methodology, click on the link above. For more information, contact Anu Mittal
at
(202)
512-3841or mittala@gao.gov. Highlights of
GAO-06-519, a report to
congressional
committees and Senator Dianne Feinstein
June
2006
U.S. TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS
Federal
and State Partners Collaborate to
Help
Communities Reduce Potential
Impacts,
but Significant Challenges
Remain
NOAA has determined that the Pacific coast states of Alaska, California,
Hawaii, Oregon and Washington,
as well as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands in
the Caribbean Sea, face the greatest tsunami
hazard. The east and
Gulf coasts
are relatively low-hazard areas. While high-hazard areas have
been
identified, limited information exists on the likely impacts of a tsunami
in those
areas. Some coastal areas lack inundation maps showing the
potential
extent of tsunami flooding in communities, and others have maps
that may be
unreliable. State assessments of likely tsunami impacts on
people and
infrastructure have been limited, in part, due to a lack of tsunami
loss
estimation software, as exists for floods and other hazards.
Although
federal warning centers quickly detect potential tsunamis and issue
warnings,
false alarms and warning system limitations hamper their
effectiveness.
Some state and local emergency managers have raised
concerns
about false alarms—the 16 warnings issued since 1982 were not
followed by
destructive tsunamis on U.S.
shores—potentially causing
citizens to
ignore future warnings. Furthermore, limitations in the
Emergency
Alert System and NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards may impede
timely
warnings to communities. For example, signal coverage for these two
systems is
insufficient to transmit warnings to some coastal areas and failure
to properly
activate them has resulted in warnings being delayed or not
transmitted
to some locations. NOAA has begun addressing false alarms but,
according
to agency officials, lacking the states’ permission elsewhere, has
only
conducted “live” end-to-end testing of the warning systems in Alaska to
identify
problems.
The at-risk communities GAO visited have mitigated potential tsunami
impacts
through planning, warning system improvements, public education,
and
infrastructure protection, but the level of implementation varies
considerably
by location. Most of the states and some communities GAO
visited
have basic mitigation plans identifying tsunami hazards. While all of
these
locations have multiple warning mechanisms in place, disruptions to
key
infrastructure such as telephone lines may hamper timely warnings.
Furthermore,
key educational efforts, such as distributing evacuation maps
and
developing school curricula have not been consistently implemented. In
addition,
few states and communities protect critical infrastructure from
tsunamis
through land-use and building design restrictions. Emergency
managers
attributed variability in their efforts to the need to focus on more
frequent hazards
like wildfires and to funding limitations. Furthermore, few
communities
participate in NOAA’s preparedness program, according to
NOAA
officials, because they perceive the threat of a tsunami to be low.
The
nationwide expansion of NOAA’s tsunami-related activities and NTHMP
is under
way; however, the future direction of these efforts is uncertain
because
they lack long-range strategic plans. NOAA has yet to identify longrange
goals,
establish risk-based priorities, and define performance measures to assess
whether its tsunami-related efforts are achieving the desired results.
The 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami raised questions about U.S. preparedness for such an
event.
The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) leads U.S. detection
and
warning
efforts and partners with federal and state agencies in the National Tsunami
Hazard
Mitigation
Program (NTHMP) to reduce tsunami risks. In 2005, Congress appropriated $17.24 million
in supplemental funding to enhance these efforts.
This report
(1) identifies U.S. coastal areas facing the greatest tsunami hazard and the
extent to which potential impacts have been assessed, (2) discusses the effectiveness
of the existing federal tsunami warning system, (3) describes efforts to
mitigate the potential impacts of tsunamis on coastal communities, and (4) assesses
NOAA’s efforts to develop long-range plans for federal tsunami programs.
What GAO
Recommends
GAO
recommends, among other things, that NOAA take steps to develop software for
tsunami loss estimation, conduct periodic end-to-end warning system tests, increase
high-risk community participation in its tsunami preparedness program and
prepare risk-based strategic plans for its efforts. NOAA reviewed a draft of
this report and generally agreed with the findings and recommendations.
U.S. Tsunami Preparedness
Contents
Letter 1
Results in Brief 5
Background 9
The Tsunami Hazard Is Greatest
in the Pacific States and
Caribbean Territories, but the Potential Impacts
Have Not Been
Comprehensively Assessed 14
Federal Warning Centers
Quickly Detect Potential Tsunamis, but
Warning Systems Have
Limitations 24
State and Local Tsunami Hazard
Mitigation Activities Are Under
Way, although Implementation
Varies Considerably among
Locations 29
Significant Expansion of
National Tsunami Preparedness Activities
Is Occurring in the Absence of
Long-Term Strategic Planning 39
Conclusions 44
Recommendations for Executive
Action 45
Agency Comments and Our
Evaluation 45
Appendix I Comments from the
Department of Commerce 48
GAO Comment 52
Appendix II Comments from the
Department of Homeland
Security 53
GAO Comments 56
Appendix III Comments from the
Department of the Interior 57
GAO Comment 59
Appendix IV GAO Contact and
Staff Acknowledgments 60
Table
Table 1: Relative Tsunami
Hazard for Distant and Local Tsunamis
in U.S. Coastal Areas 15
Figures
Figure 1: Subduction Zone
Earthquakes Generate Tsunamis 10
Figure 2: Sea-Level Tsunami
Detection Methods 12
Page i GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
Figure 3: Overview of Tsunami
Warning Flow 13
Figure 4: Pacific Ocean
Subduction Zones Surround Hawaii
16
Figure 5: The Cascadia
Subduction Zone 17
Figure 6: The Aleutian
Subduction Zone 18
Figure 7: The Puerto Rico
Trench Subduction Zone 19
Figure 8: Tsunami Warning
Signal Transmission for EAS and NOAA
Weather Radio 27
Figure 9: Tsunami Hazard Zone
Signs 32
Figure 10: TsunamiReady Sign
for Communities 38
Abbreviations
DART Deep-ocean Assessment
and Reporting of Tsunamis
EAS Emergency Alert System
FEMA Federal Emergency
Management Agency
HAZUS—MH Hazards U.S.—Multi-Hazard
NOAA National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
NTHMP National Tsunami Hazard
Mitigation Program
NWS National Weather Service
USGS U.S. Geological
Survey
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Page ii GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami Preparedness
United States Government Accountability Office
Washington, DC 20548
June 5, 2006
The Honorable Ted Stevens
Chairman
Committee on Commerce, Science and
Transportation
United States Senate
The Honorable Daniel K. Inouye
Co-Chairman
Committee on Commerce, Science and
Transportation
United States Senate
The Honorable Don Young
Chairman
Committee on Transportation and
Infrastructure
House of Representatives
The Honorable James L. Oberstar
Ranking Democratic Member
Committee on Transportation and
Infrastructure
House of Representatives
The Honorable Dianne Feinstein
United States Senate
The Indian Ocean
tsunami of December 2004 killed more than 200,000
people, displaced more than 1.5 million,
and caused significant damage in
12 countries in Asia and East Africa. Although the earthquake that
triggered the tsunami was immediately
detected, the existence of a
tsunami was not quickly confirmed, and a
warning message was not
delivered to most of those in the
tsunami’s path. As a result, casualties and
damage occurred not only near the
earthquake’s source, where
communities had little time to react, but
also in distant coastal
communities that were impacted by tsunami
waves hours later. The
devastation caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami has raised concerns
about the vulnerability and preparedness
of U.S.
coastal communities and
the ability of our detection and warning
systems to help prevent a similarly
destructive event.
Page 1 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
A tsunami is a series of ocean waves
typically generated by an underwater
earthquake.1 A tsunami wave may be very small in the deep ocean, but as it
approaches land can increase to tens of
feet in height and reach shore as a
fast-moving wall of turbulent water.
Tsunamis pose an inundation threat to
low-lying coastal communities from
multiple destructive waves that can
penetrate far inland. Tsunamis are
categorized as either distant or local.
Distant tsunamis travel long distances
from their triggering events to strike
the coast hours later, allowing time to
warn and evacuate threatened
communities. Local tsunamis strike the
coast minutes after their nearshore
triggering event, allowing little time
for warning and evacuation.
However, the frequency of damaging
tsunamis in the United
States has
been low, compared with other natural
hazards, such as hurricanes,
earthquakes, and floods.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) manages
federal tsunami detection and warning
efforts. NOAA’s National Weather
Service (NWS) operates two tsunami
warning centers whose staff monitor
seismic data and, based on the location
and magnitude of earthquakes,
issue warnings when tsunamis are likely.
The warning centers transmit a
tsunami warning message to NWS forecast
offices and state emergency
management centers, among others.2 NWS forecast offices transmit the
warning over NOAA Weather Radio All
Hazards (NOAA Weather Radio)
and the Emergency Alert System. NOAA
Weather Radio is a nationwide
network of radio stations broadcasting
continuous weather information,
including warnings, watches, forecasts
and other hazard information, 24
hours a day directly from NWS weather
forecast offices. The Federal
Communication Commission’s Emergency
Alert System, designed to
provide the President a means to
communicate with the American people
in the event of an emergency, can decode
and retransmit NOAA Weather
Radio warning messages over radio and
television broadcast and cable
systems.
Federal, state, and local government
agencies are all involved in efforts to
reduce the potential impacts of tsunamis
through education, hazard
assessment, mitigation planning, and
other activities. For example, NOAA
-------------
1Landslides, volcanic activity, and meteor strikes may
also generate a tsunami.
2NWS is the official U.S. source of warnings for
life-threatening weather conditions, as well
as tsunamis. NWS operates 122 weather
forecast offices nationwide, providing weather,
water and climate forecasts and warnings
for the United States,
its territories, adjacent
waters and ocean areas to protect life
and property and enhance the national economy.
Page 2 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
operates a tsunami preparedness
recognition program known as
TsunamiReady that encourages communities
to educate citizens on
tsunami hazards, develop tsunami hazard
plans, and establish local
warning systems, among other things. In
addition, NOAA provides
leadership and funding for the National
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Program (NTHMP). This program, initiated
in 1996, has been a partnership
between NOAA; the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); the
Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); and
five states—Alaska,
California, Hawaii,
Oregon and Washington—to assess tsunami hazards,
improve and coordinate tsunami warning
systems, and develop state and
local hazard mitigation programs.3 For example, under the NTHMP, NOAA
provides funding and technical support to
help the states produce
inundation maps showing the extent to
which coastal areas may be
flooded by a tsunami. Communities use
these maps to help identify people
and property at-risk and to develop
strategies for mitigating the hazard.
Furthermore, the Stafford
Act, as amended by the Disaster Mitigation Act
of 2000, requires all states and
localities to develop FEMA-approved
hazard mitigation plans to qualify for
certain disaster relief funding.4 These
plans provide a framework for states and
communities to assess their
vulnerability to all hazards and, if a
significant tsunami threat exists,
develop approaches to reduce tsunami
impacts on people and
infrastructure within their
jurisdictions.
In May 2005, the Congress appropriated
$17.24 million in supplemental
funds for NOAA to expand and improve its
tsunami detection capabilities,
enhance warning center operations and
facilities, produce tsunami
inundation forecast models, and expand
the TsunamiReady program
participation nationwide.5 In fiscal year 2006, $9.82 million in
appropriations were designated for
tsunami-related activities, and NOAA
requested $21.66 million for fiscal year
2007.6 NOAA is initially spending
these funds primarily on enhancing its
tsunami detection capabilities, for
---------------
3As of March 2006, NOAA was expanding the NTHMP into a
nationwide program open to
participation by 28 coastal states and
territories.
442 U.S.C. § 5165.
5After a tsunami-generating event, inundation forecast
models combine actual wave data
with precomputed flooding scenarios to
predict the size of the wave and the extent of
potential flooding for specific
locations.
6The $9.82 million designated for tsunami-related
activities in fiscal year 2006 includes over
$2.5 million for specific activities,
such as $500,000 for warning sirens for the state of
Washington.
Page 3 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
example, by expanding its network of
Deep-ocean Assessment and
Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) detection
stations in the Pacific Ocean to
39 stations covering the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
and the Caribbean
Sea.
To address questions regarding the status
of national tsunami
preparedness, this report (1) identifies U.S.
coastal areas facing the
greatest tsunami hazard and the extent to
which potential tsunami impacts
on people and infrastructure have been
assessed; (2) discusses the
effectiveness of the existing federal
tsunami warning system; (3) describes
ongoing local, state, and federal agency
efforts to mitigate the potential
impacts of tsunamis on coastal
communities; and (4) assesses NOAA’s
efforts to develop long-range plans for
federal tsunami programs.
In conducting our work, we visited the
states participating in the
NTHMP—Alaska,
California, Hawaii,
Oregon, and Washington—as well as
Puerto Rico and Florida. We met with federal, state, and
local officials,
reviewed documentation related to tsunami
hazard assessment, warning
and mitigation efforts, and analyzed
plans for current and future tsunami
preparedness activities. To identify the U.S. coastal
areas facing the
greatest tsunami hazard and the extent to
which their vulnerability to
tsunami impacts has been assessed, we
reviewed historic and seismic data
and analysis from NOAA and other federal
and state sources. For the
states facing the greatest tsunami
hazards, we determined the extent to
which tsunami inundation maps identifying
the potential vulnerability of
people and infrastructure have been
prepared, and reviewed each state’s
FEMA-approved, all-hazard mitigation plan
to determine how and to what
extent tsunami impacts have been
assessed.
To discuss the effectiveness of the
current federal tsunami warning
system, we visited both of NOAA’s tsunami
warning centers and met with
officials to discuss how they conduct
their detection and warning
responsibilities and how they measure
their effectiveness. In addition, we
visited selected NOAA warning forecast
offices, met with officials to
determine how tsunami warnings are
disseminated and tracked, and met
with state emergency managers to
determine how they receive warnings
and to obtain their views regarding the effectiveness
of the warnings. We
also reviewed reports prepared by NOAA
and by state emergency
managers that evaluated the effectiveness
of warnings issued by NOAA on
June 14, 2005, due to a potentially
tsunami-generating earthquake off the
Northern California coastline.
Page 4 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
To describe local, state, and federal
agency efforts to mitigate the potential
impacts of tsunamis on coastal
communities, we initially met with state
emergency managers and reviewed state
mitigation documents. Because
comprehensive statewide data on local
mitigation activities does not exist,
we next visited selected at-risk
communities recommended by state
emergency managers. The communities we
visited are Seward and Kodiak,
Alaska; San Mateo
County and Crescent City, California; Hilo
and
Honolulu, Hawaii;
Seaside and Gold Beach, Oregon;
Mayaguez and
Rincon,
Puerto Rico; and Ocean
Shores and Long Beach, Washington.
We
discussed tsunami preparedness efforts
with the community emergency
managers, such as planning, warning,
education and outreach,
infrastructure protection, and the
TsunamiReady program and obtained
documentation of their efforts and
activities in these areas. We also met
with NOAA officials involved with the
TsunamiReady program and
reviewed program documentation.
To assess NOAA’s efforts to develop
long-range plans for federal tsunami
programs, we met with NOAA officials and
reviewed plans for NOAA’s
ongoing tsunami activities, as well as
schedules for the completion of
NOAA’s Tsunami Program expansion. We also
met with National Tsunami
Hazard Mitigation Program participants,
including NOAA, USGS, FEMA,
and state representatives and reviewed
program documentation to
determine how NOAA is planning for the
future management and direction
of its tsunami activities.
We conducted our work between April 2005
and March 2006 in accordance
with generally accepted government
auditing standards.
Results in Brief
The coastal areas of the five states
bordering the Pacific Ocean and U.S.
territories in the Caribbean
face the greatest tsunami hazard, but reliable
and comprehensive assessments of the
potential impacts on people and
infrastructure have not been completed
for many of these areas.
According to NOAA, the general areas most
threatened by both distant and
local tsunamis are Hawaii
and the west coast states of California, Oregon,
and Washington,
whereas Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
are threatened primarily by local
tsunamis. Historically, the east coast and
the Gulf coast tsunami hazards are
relatively low. Because inundation
maps are the foundation for evaluating
potential tsunami impacts on
communities, map production has been a
high priority for NOAA and the
threatened states. However, progress on
this front has been slow—for
example, Alaska has inundation maps for only 5 of 60
at-risk
communities—primarily because accurate
maps are complex and costly
Page 5 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
for states to produce. To effectively
prepare for a tsunami, states and
localities also need to assess the
potential impacts of a tsunami on people
and infrastructure. While FEMA has
standardized computer software for
comprehensively estimating the likely
human, structural, and economic
damages from natural disasters such as
floods, hurricanes and
earthquakes, no such tool exists for
tsunamis. For this and other reasons,
California and Alaska have not specifically assessed
potential tsunami
losses, while the other at-risk areas
have produced limited tsunami
damage assessments. Consequently,
emergency managers in the at-risk
states and U.S. territories do not have
comprehensive information on how
many and what types of structures would
be exposed and damaged, how
many people could be injured or killed,
or the extent of potential short and
long-term economic impacts of a tsunami.
We are recommending that
NOAA work with FEMA and USGS to create
standardized tsunami loss
estimation software.
Although NWS’s warning centers can
quickly detect potential tsunamis
and issue warnings, the effectiveness of
these warnings is hampered by
false alarms and limitations in the
federal systems that transmit warnings
to the local level. NWS’s warning centers
have rapidly analyzed seismic
data to detect potential tsunamis, and if
the location and magnitude of an
earthquake indicated that a tsunami was
likely, the centers generally
issued a warning within 5 to 10 minutes
for local tsunamis. However, some
state and local emergency management
officials have raised concerns
about false alarms, because the warnings
proved to be unnecessary—no
damaging waves actually reached U.S.
shores following the 16 warnings
issued since 1982—or were overly broad
and included communities that
were not imminently threatened. Such
warnings can cause unnecessary
and costly evacuations and, experts warn,
may cause people to ignore
future warnings. NWS has begun addressing
false alarm concerns, for
example, by expanding the network of DART
stations that help warning
centers confirm whether a tsunami has
been generated, but it has not set
specific performance targets for reducing
the number, scope, and duration
of false alarms. We are recommending that
NOAA take specific steps, such
as reexamining its rules for when a
warning will be issued and to which
areas, to reduce false alarms.
Furthermore, although NWS warning centers
effectively transmit tsunami warnings to
NWS forecast offices, these
offices do not always send timely
warnings to affected local areas because
the two primary federal warning alert
systems—the Emergency Alert
System and NOAA Weather Radio—have
significant limitations. For
example, signal coverage for these two
systems is insufficient to transmit
warnings to some coastal areas. This
shortcoming was highlighted in June
2005, when an actual tsunami warning for
the west coast was issued but
Page 6 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
signal problems prevented the warning
from reaching portions of the
coasts of Washington
and Oregon.
Also, to properly activate these warning
systems, NWS forecast office staff must
enter a tsunami-specific code into
a computer. During the June 2005 event,
failure to do so in a timely
manner or at all resulted in warnings
being delayed or not transmitted to
some locations. NOAA has only conducted
end-to-end tests of the tsunami
warning system using actual “live”
warning codes, rather than test codes,
in Alaska
to identify problems before actual events occur. In commenting
on a draft of this report, NOAA said that
it conducts such end-to-end
testing where allowed and uses test codes
in other states. We are
recommending that NOAA continue to work
with the states to conduct
end-to-end testing that ensures the
system will function as intended during
an emergency.
The at-risk communities we visited have
taken actions to mitigate tsunami
impacts through planning, warning system
improvements, public
education, and infrastructure protection;
however, the level of
implementation among these locations
varies considerably. Each of the six
states we visited have FEMA-approved,
all-hazard mitigation plans that
identify tsunami hazards; and most have
taken the additional step of
identifying actions to mitigate those
hazards, such as relocating critical
facilities out of inundation zones.
However, only 4 of the 12 communities
we visited have developed FEMA-approved
plans that include tsunami
mitigation projects. Further, while all
of the states and communities we
visited have developed some mechanisms
for warning people about a
tsunami threat, communications problems
may hamper some
communities’ ability to receive and
disseminate warnings in a timely
manner. For example, during the west
coast tsunami warning in June 2005,
many 911 dispatch centers and telephone
lines were overloaded, in some
cases, preventing local emergency
managers from quickly disseminating
the warning to other local officials and
preventing telephone-based
warning systems from reaching residents.
Moreover, while state and local
officials recognize the need to educate
the public, key efforts identified by
tsunami preparedness experts—such as
distributing evacuation maps and
developing school curricula—have not been
consistently implemented
across the states and communities we
visited. For example, only two of
the six at-risk states we visited have
developed and implemented tsunami
preparedness curricula in schools. In
addition, few states and localities
have implemented long-term mitigation
efforts such as land-use
restrictions and building design codes to
prevent loss of life and reduce
economic damage. Overall, state and local
emergency managers attributed
the variability in tsunami preparedness
efforts to a variety of factors,
including their focus on other higher
priority natural hazards and a lack of
Page 7 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
funding. Furthermore, only a few
communities in coastal areas have
chosen to participate in NOAA’s voluntary
TsunamiReady program, which
is designed to help them take the initial
steps in tsunami mitigation. NOAA
officials believe that TsunamiReady
participation is limited because of
community perceptions of a low tsunami
threat and perceived high cost
versus benefit. We are recommending that
NOAA evaluate the
TsunamiReady program to determine how to
increase participation by
high-risk communities.
Efforts are under way to significantly
expand federal tsunami detection
and related activities as well as the
NTHMP; however, the future direction
of these efforts is uncertain because
NOAA has not established long-range
strategic plans to guide them. Strategic
plans are important because they
help agencies set specific program goals
and objectives, define
performance measures for assessing
program effectiveness, ensure
coordination of existing activities and
establish risk-based priorities. Prior
to the Indian Ocean
tsunami in December 2004, NOAA’s various tsunamirelated
activities, such as warning center
operations, the TsunamiReady
program, and tsunami-related research,
were not managed as a formal,
integrated program. NOAA combined the
activities in 2005 into a single
program and is currently strengthening
and expanding certain elements of
the program. However, NOAA has not yet
adopted a comprehensive, riskbased
strategic plan to guide its expanded
tsunami program into the
future. NOAA officials told us they
expect to finalize such a plan during
2006. In addition, the plan that NOAA is
using to guide the NTHMP
activities has not been updated since
1996, and the program’s performance
has not been formally assessed since
2001. As a result, some issues raised
in the 2001 assessment, such as lack of
performance measures, remain
concerns of state NTHMP members today.
Representatives of the five
original high-hazard NTHMP states are
also concerned that the program’s
funding decisions and strategic direction
may become less risk-based as
states that face relatively low hazards
join the program. Without an
updated, risk-based strategic plan for
the expanded NTHMP, NOAA will
have difficulty ensuring that the most
threatened states get the resources
they need to continue and complete key
mitigation activities. We are
recommending that NOAA evaluate the NTHMP
to determine what has
worked well and what high-priority
activities remain to be completed and
develop comprehensive risk-based
strategic plans for the Tsunami
Program and NTHMP.
In commenting on a draft of this report,
the Department of Commerce
representing NOAA agreed with all of our
recommendations and indicated
that steps will be taken to implement
them. The Department of Homeland
Page 8 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
Security representing FEMA concurred with
our recommendation that
NOAA should work with FEMA and USGS to
create standardized tsunami
loss estimation software. However the
department noted that FEMA does
not have the resources to pursue such a
request; and therefore, any
request of assistance on this issue from
NOAA would have to address
these resource constraints. The
Department of the Interior did not
comment on our recommendations. The
comments from the Departments
of Commerce, Homeland Security, and the
Interior appear in appendixes I, II and III.
Background
Tsunamis are typically generated by
underwater earthquakes—landslides,
volcanic activity, and meteor strikes are
other known, but less common,
tsunami sources. Tsunami generating
earthquakes usually occur in
subduction zones, such as those found in
the Pacific Ocean off the U.S.
western and Alaskan coasts, as well as in
the Caribbean. Marked by deep
trenches in the seafloor, subduction
zones are formed where one of the
earth’s outer shell of tectonic plates
plunges underneath another.7 Usually
the plates are gradually moving past each
other, but friction may
temporarily lock them together, causing
stress to build up between the
plates. Sometimes the stress is relieved
suddenly in the form of a large
earthquake. As shown in figure 1, the bottom
plate dives farther down,
snapping the top plate violently upward,
disturbing the overlying seawater.
The size of the resulting tsunami depends
on a complex set of factors,
including the size of the earthquake, its
depth below the ocean floor, the
depth of the water, the type and amount
of seafloor movement and the
energy released.
7Tectonic plates are the large plates of rock that
compose the earth’s outermost layer and
move in relation to each other as they
ride atop the hot, mobile material below them.
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Figure 1: Subduction Zone
Earthquakes Generate Tsunamis
Fault
Once generated, some tsunami
waves move quickly inland while other
waves head toward the open
ocean, often at speeds up to 600 miles per
hour. Therefore, a tsunami
generated by an earthquake off the coast of
Alaska would be a local tsunami for
that state’s coastal areas, and could
strike within minutes of the
event, while the same event is considered a
distant tsunami for the coast
of Washington
state, which would not likely
be hit until 3 or more hours
later.
While tsunamis can be a high
impact natural hazard, the frequency of
damaging tsunamis in the United States
has been low, compared with
other natural hazards.
According to NOAA’s records, the last tsunami
Page 10 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami Preparedness
causing significant impacts was at Skagway, Alaska,
in November 1994,
where the landslide and associated
tsunami caused one death and $25
million in damages. According to FEMA,
flooding, severe storms, and
hurricanes are the most common and costly
causes of disaster
declarations in the United States; at least 10 such
events since 1989 have
each required FEMA relief expenditures in
excess of a billion dollars.
Although damaging tsunamis are relatively
rare, the devastation caused by
the Indian Ocean
tsunami demonstrates the need for assessing the threat,
and for monitoring and preparing for an
event in at-risk areas, particularly
low-lying, seismically active coastal
areas.
The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning
Center in Palmer, Alaska,
is
responsible for warning Alaska, the west coast and east coast
states, and
states along the Gulf
of Mexico, while the Richard H. Hagemeyer, Pacific
Tsunami Warning
Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii,
is responsible for warning
Hawaii and U.S.
territories in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean
Sea.8 These
warning centers use two types of data for
determining when to issue a
tsunami warning. First, they receive and
analyze earthquake data from
seismic networks operated by NOAA, USGS,
the states, and universities to
determine whether to issue a warning.9 If the seismic data indicate that a
local tsunami may be generated, the
responsible warning center issues a
warning based on the earthquake data
alone. Second, the warning centers
analyze sea-level data to determine
whether a tsunami has actually been
generated, and if not, cancel the
warning. The centers receive sea-level
data through a network of DART stations
and sea-level gauges, as shown
in figure 2. DART stations consist of a
seafloor bottom-pressure recording
system that is capable of detecting
tsunamis smaller than 1 inch and is
connected to a surface buoy that
transmits the data by satellite to NOAA.
Scientists at the warning centers
incorporate the data from the DART
stations into tsunami forecast models to
estimate the size of the expected
waves and the potential impact on coastal
areas. The tsunami warning
centers have used forecast models they
developed, as well as models
--------------
8The warning center in Alaska
is also responsible for providing warnings to Canada, and
the warning center in Hawaii is responsible for warning 27
countries in the Pacific. In
addition, each warning center provides
operational backup for the other center.
9In May 2005, the Congress appropriated $8.1 million in
supplemental funds for USGS to,
among other things, begin expanding the
Global Seismographic Network.
Page 11 GAO-06-519 Tsunami Preparedness
developed by NOAA’s Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory, which
produce expected tsunami inundations at nine
high-risk locations.10
Figure 2: Sea-Level Tsunami Detection Methods
DART station Tide gauge
Source: NOAA. Source:
NOAA.
A network of federal, state, and local
government agencies are responsible
for ensuring that a tsunami warning reaches
the public. Figure 3 provides
an overview of the key components of this
process. The federal tsunami
warning centers send a warning to NWS forecast
offices and state
emergency management centers by multiple
means, such as FEMA’s
National Warning System, a dedicated telephone
hotline, and NWS’s
satellite-based National Weather Wire
Service.11 The forecast offices, in
turn, transmit the warning over NOAA Weather
Radio and the Emergency
Alert System (EAS). State emergency managers
receive tsunami warnings
from NWS and then warn counties and local
communities using multiple
methods, including a dedicated telephone
network for state and local
emergency management officials. Finally,
county and local officials are
10The nine completed tsunami forecast models are
for Kodiak, AK;
Crescent City, CA;
Hilo,
HI; Newport, OR; Seaside, OR; San Francisco,
CA; Willapa Bay, WA; Neah Bay, WA; and
Port
Angeles, WA.
11The National Weather Wire Service transmits
text-based weather forecasts and warnings
to an array of subscribers, including the
media.
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Tsunami Preparedness
responsible for warning the public and issuing
evacuation orders, using a
variety of methods including bullhorns,
sirens, and telephone systems.
Figure 3: Overview of Tsunami Warning Flow
(...)
Source: GAO analysis.
Federal, state, and local government agencies
also conduct hazard
mitigation activities to reduce the potential
impacts of tsunamis. At the
federal level, NWS operates the TsunamiReady
community recognition
program. Initiated in 2000, TsunamiReady is
modeled after NWS’s
StormReady program for hurricanes and
tornados. NWS meteorologists in regional forecast offices are responsible for
reviewing applications from
coastal communities and ensuring that they
meet program requirements in conjunction with state emergency management
officials. NOAA also provides a chairperson and funding for the NTHMP. From
1998 through 2001, NOAA provided $2.3 million annually for the NTHMP,
increasing to $4.3 million annually in 2002 through 2005, and returning to $2.3
million in
Page 13 GAO-06-519 U.S.
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2006. Initially, the five participating states
each received less than $100,000 annually from the NTHMP, but in recent years
they have each received approximately $275,000 annually to directly supplement
their individual mitigation efforts, while NOAA and the other federal partners
used the remaining funds to support their own activities under the program.
NOAA estimates that since the program’s inception the states have matched the
NTHMP funding by a ratio of six state in-kind or dollar contributions for every
program dollar.
The Tsunami Hazard Is Greatest in the Pacific
States and Caribbean Territories,
but the Potential Impacts Have Not Been Comprehensively Assessed
Tsunamis pose the greatest hazard to the
coastal areas of the five states bordering the Pacific Ocean and U.S. territories in the Caribbean,
but for many of these areas reliable, comprehensive assessments of potential
tsunami impacts on people and infrastructure have not been completed.
Some high-hazard coastal areas do not have
tsunami inundation maps—
the foundation for evaluating potential
tsunami impacts on communities—showing the extent to which a tsunami would
penetrate inland and flood communities, while others have maps that may not be
reliable. Progress in developing these maps has been slow, primarily because
accurate maps are complex and costly for states to produce. Furthermore, states
and communities do not have comprehensive information on the potential human,
structural, and economic impacts of a tsunami. While FEMA has standardized
computer software for estimating losses resulting from natural disasters such
as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes, no such tool exists for assessing
tsunamis.
The Coastal Areas of the Pacific United
States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands Face the Greatest Tsunami
Hazards
According to NOAA, the general areas most
threatened by both distant and local tsunami hazards are Hawaii and the west
coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington, whereas Alaska and the
Caribbean Islands of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are threatened
primarily by local tsunamis, as shown in table 1. The hazard levels are
primarily based on tsunami source, height, and frequency information since
1900—the most reliable and accurate information available—from NOAA’s National Geophysical Data
Center tsunami database.
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Table 1: Relative Tsunami Hazard for Distant
and Local Tsunamis in U.S.
Coastal
Areas
Coastal area | Distant tsunami hazard | Local
tsunami hazard
Hawaiian | High | High
Western High Medium
Alaskan Low High
Caribbean Low High
Eastern Low Low
Gulf Low Low
Source: NOAA.
According to NOAA, Hawaii is a high-hazard area for distant and
local
tsunamis. Hawaii has experienced many destructive
tsunamis because of
its location in the Pacific
Ocean, as shown in figure 4, where about 80
percent of all recorded tsunamis have
occurred. More than one-half of all
tsunamis recorded in the Hawaiian
Islands were generated in the distant
Aleutian regions of the northern and
northwestern Pacific Ocean, and
about one-fourth were generated along the
western coast of South
America. Hawaii’s local tsunami
threat stems from earthquake and
volcanic activity, which cause underwater
landslides off the coast. Hawaii
suffered its greatest tsunami death and
destruction in 1946, when an
earthquake in the Aleutian
Islands generated a tsunami that reportedly
killed 159 people. Hilo, Hawaii
suffered the greatest loss—96 deaths and
the destruction of its waterfront area. Since
1946, an additional five
tsunamis—four distant and one local—have
caused a reported 63 deaths
and widespread destruction.
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Figure 4: Pacific Ocean Subduction Zones
Surround Hawaii
(...)
Subduction zone; barbs are on overiding
tectonic plate
Sources: USGS and MapArt.
NOAA considers the west coast a high-hazard
area for distant tsunamis
and medium-hazard area for local tsunamis.
Like Hawaii,
the west coast
historically has suffered the most destruction
from tsunamis generated by Pacific earthquakes in the distant South America and
Aleutian regions. In California, two tsunamis have caused
significant damage. The 1960 Chilean earthquake caused estimated tsunami
damages of over $1 million, and the tsunami generated by the 1964 Alaskan event
killed 12 in Northern
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Tsunami Preparedness
California and caused an estimated $15 million in destruction, including
damages inside San Francisco Bay.
Oregon and Washington both have
sustained damages in coastal areas from
distant tsunamis over the years.
Although distant tsunamis historically have
been most common, a local
tsunami generated by the 750 mile long
Cascadia subduction zone, lying
just 50 to 100 miles off the coasts of Washington, Oregon,
and Northern
California, is considered a major threat. (See fig. 5.) Geologic and other
records from a Cascadia earthquake in 1700
suggest that the fault could
generate a tsunami wave of up to 30 feet that
would likely reach the
Oregon coast in 15 to 30 minutes, raising concerns of a catastrophic future
event.
Figure 5: The Cascadia Subduction Zone
Cascadia subduction zone; barbs are on
overiding tectonic plate
(...)
Sources: USGS and MapArt.
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Tsunami Preparedness
Alaska is a high-hazard area for local tsunamis, but a low-hazard area for
distant tsunamis, according to NOAA. The local
tsunami threat to Alaska
is caused by seismic activity in the Aleutian subduction zone where the
Pacific and North-American tectonic plates
collide, as shown in figure 6.
Tsunamis generated by earthquake induced
landslides occurring inside
bays have been responsible for most death and
damage in Alaska.
The
1964 Alaskan earthquake triggered several tsunamis
that in some cases
struck land within 2 minutes of being
generated. The tsunamis caused 106 deaths in Alaska
and caused significant damage in the towns of Kodiak, Seward, Whittier,
and Valdez.
Only once has a distant tsunami caused damage in Alaska; the 1960 Chilean earthquake caused
relatively minor tsunami impacts on Alaskan harbors.
Figure 6: The Aleutian Subduction Zone
Cascadia subduction zone; barbs are on
overiding tectonic plate
(...)
Sources: USGS and MapArt.
The Caribbean area, including the U.S. territories of Puerto
Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, is a high-hazard area for
local tsunamis but a low-hazard area for distant tsunamis, according to NOAA.
The local tsunami
threat posed to the islands comes primarily
from the potential for
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Tsunami Preparedness
earthquakes and underwater landslides in the
Puerto Rico Trench
subduction zone that lies to the north of both
Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, as shown in figure 7. Puerto Rico’s
most devastating event
of the last century occurred in 1918, when an
earthquake off the northwest
coast generated a tsunami of more than 15
feet, causing an estimated 140
deaths and about $4 million in property
damages. In the town of Aguadilla,
nearly 300 homes were destroyed. In the U.S. Virgin Islands,
an 1867
earthquake in the Anegada Trench sent
destructive waves into the harbor
of Charlotte Amelie on the island of Saint Thomas,
destroying boats, the
wharf, and the waterfront.
Figure 7: The Puerto Rico Trench Subduction
Zone
Caribbean Sea Puerto Rico Trench subduction
zone; barbs are on overiding tectonic plate
(...)
Sources: USGS and MapArt.
According to NOAA, the Atlantic
and Gulf state coasts are relatively low-hazard areas for distant or local tsunamis,
with few reliable reports of
tsunami waves of any size ever reaching either
coast. This is a
Page 19 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
consequence of the low level of tsunami
generating seismic activity
nearby—the nearest subduction zones are in the
Caribbean. Historically,
none of the tsunamis generated in the Atlantic Ocean region has
significantly affected the east coast of the United States.
For example, the
1929 Grand Banks
earthquake-induced landslide caused a tsunami which
killed 29 in Newfoundland but only resulted in a wave
height of 1 foot on
the U.S. coast, and a distant tsunami
generated by a massive earthquake
near Lisbon, Portugal in 1755 had no observed impact on the U.S. coast.
The potential distant threat from the collapse
of a volcanic island off the
coast of Africa
is the subject of scientific debate, and the potential for a
local tsunami-generating collapse of the
continental shelf off of the east
coast is being investigated but is
unconfirmed. Regarding the Gulf coast,
an earthquake in the Caribbean
is considered the most likely source of a
tsunami; however, scientists believe that Florida and Cuba protect the Gulf
from Caribbean
tsunamis and that the Gulf is unlikely to propagate a large,
destructive tsunami wave.
Potential Tsunami Impacts on People and Infrastructure Have Not Been
Comprehensively or Reliably Assessed
Because inundation maps are the foundation for
evaluating the potential
impacts of tsunami events, producing such maps
has been a high priority
since 1996 for NOAA and the five states
participating in the NTHMP. To
optimize time and resources, the NTHMP
partners agreed that (1) the
states would identify the high-priority
communities to be mapped; (2)
NOAA, state, and university tsunami modeling
scientists would use models
to produce inundation information for
high-priority areas identified by the
states; and (3) state and local officials
would produce and publish official
inundation maps. NOAA’s Center for Tsunami
Inundation Mapping Efforts
at its Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
assists the modelers and
the states in their efforts.
Although the NTHMP planned to complete mapping
for all at-risk U.S.
coastal communities by 1999, progress has been
slowed, primarily because
more accurate—but also more complex and
costly—mapping techniques
have been adopted by the states. Initially,
the NTHMP planned to use
relatively simple modeling technology because
this approach would
require fewer resources than the more advanced
technique, known as twodimensional
modeling, which requires detailed seafloor and
coastal terrain
data to accurately model wave action and
impact. Upon comparison of
these two technologies, the NTHMP decided in
December 1996 to use twodimensional
modeling techniques for all mapping. While the
NTHMP
members recognized that adopting
two-dimensional modeling would
reduce the pace of modeling and mapping, they
agreed that the decision
would result in products of improved detail,
quality, and reliability.
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Consequently, in the five states participating
in the NTHMP, some coastal
areas currently do not have two-dimensional
tsunami inundation maps,
while other coastal areas have inundation maps
that predate current
modeling standards and therefore may not be
reliable.12 Specifically:
• Alaska
has produced two-dimensional inundation maps for 5 communities,
while 60 additional communities are
prioritized, but have yet to be
mapped;
• California
has produced two-dimensional inundation maps for 11 coastal
counties, excluding some areas such as
harbors, while maps are being
produced for the remaining 4 counties;
• Hawaii
has 66 maps covering the entire coastline that predate current
modeling standards; because the existing maps
may underestimate
inundation areas, the state initiated a
two-dimensional mapping program
in 2005 that has produced one map;
• Oregon
has 52 maps covering the entire coastline that predate current
modeling standards; since 1996 the state has
produced two-dimensional
maps for 9 communities, and 17 additional
communities are prioritized but
have not yet been mapped; and
• Washington
has two-dimensional maps for its southern coast as well as
many northern areas, while eight additional
maps have been prioritized
but remain incomplete for certain coastal bay
and Puget Sound
communities.
To effectively prepare for a tsunami, states
and localities also need to
assess potential impacts on people and
infrastructure. According to FEMA
risk assessment guidance, after mapping how
and where hazards will
impact an area, planners should determine what
elements of the
population, infrastructure, and economy will
be impacted by the hazards
and estimate the potential losses that could
occur. According to FEMA,
estimating losses is essential for decision
making at all levels of
government, including providing a basis for
developing mitigation plans
-------------------------
12Separate from the NTHMP, Puerto
Rico has produced two-dimensional tsunami
inundation maps for its entire coastline, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has produced maps for
St. Croix, St. John,
and St. Thomas
that roughly estimate tsunami inundation based on the
wave that struck the islands in 1867.
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and policies, emergency preparedness, and
response and recovery
planning.
Each of the five Pacific region states, as
well as Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, have identified tsunamis as a hazard in their FEMAapproved,
all-hazard mitigation plans.13 To obtain FEMA
approval, states
are required to describe and estimate
losses—based on their own and
local jurisdiction assessments—for state-owned
or -operated buildings,
infrastructure, and critical facilities in
areas subject to hazards. According
to FEMA, the agency deliberately took the
approach of not being highly
prescriptive regarding the development of the
plans—focusing its
requirements more on what should be done
rather than how it should be
done—in recognition of the inherent
differences among states in terms of
size, resources, capabilities, and vulnerability.
For example, states are
highly encouraged, but not required, to
consider impacts on vulnerable
populations, in particular elderly, disabled,
and low-income persons, and
to analyze the potential economic and human
impact that each hazard
would have statewide. FEMA also encourages the
use of several tools in
preparing damage assessments, such as HAZUS-MH
(Hazards U.S.—Multi-
Hazard), which is standardized computer
software for comprehensively
estimating the likely human, structural, and
economic damages from
earthquakes, floods, and hurricane winds.
However, HAZUS-MH does not
include a tsunami loss estimation module; and
according to FEMA, there is
no similarly reliable tool for estimating
tsunami losses.
The National Science and Technology Council’s
December 2005 report on
tsunami risk reduction specifically called for
FEMA, NOAA, and USGS to
take responsibility for developing a
coordinated risk-assessment tool—
e.g., HAZUS—for effective use in tsunami risk
assessments.14 The National
Institute of Building
Sciences—which produced the
existing HAZUS-MH
software for other hazards in partnership with
FEMA—has estimated that
developing tsunami loss estimation methods and
software would take
about 3 years, at a cost of up to $10 million.
A standardized tsunami loss
estimation tool would not only help the
existing five NTHMP-member
states conduct risk assessments, but it would
also be useful to any
additional states joining the NTHMP as it
expands into a national program;
---------------------
13In addition, the Atlantic coast states of Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, New
Hampshire,
New Jersey, Maine, and North Carolina have also identified tsunamis
as a hazard.
14“Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States:
A Framework for Action.” National
Science and Technology Council, December 2005.
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Tsunami Preparedness
and it could also help the NTHMP and NOAA
prioritize tsunami activities
to focus on the areas most vulnerable to
tsunami losses.
Because of the lack of tsunami inundation
maps, the variability in
approaches that was allowed in the all-hazard
plans, and the lack of a
standardized tsunami loss estimation tool,
some at-risk states have not
specifically assessed potential tsunami
impacts, while other at-risk states
or territories have produced assessments that
do not provide complete
loss information for all areas. Consequently,
emergency managers in the
at-risk states and territories do not have
comprehensive information on
how many and what types of structures would be
exposed and damaged,
how many people would likely be injured or
killed, or the extent of likely
short- and long-term economic impacts in the
event of a tsunami.15 For
example:
• Alaska
has not assessed tsunami impacts because the state lacks detailed
inundation information for many at-risk
coastal communities;
• California
assessed impacts from its high-risk earthquake hazard where
tsunamis are identified as a subhazard, but
the state has not specifically
assessed tsunami impacts; and
• Hawaii
assessed tsunami impacts on the state’s critical infrastructure and
estimated the average annualized property
loss; but the state did not
estimate injuries, deaths or the overall
economic impacts due to tsunamis.
According to NOAA officials, risk assessments
for coastal areas requires
the careful analysis of information such as
tsunami frequency, site-specific
tsunami inundation levels, and population
density; but they acknowledge
that such information is not available for
many at-risk areas. Nevertheless,
in March 2006, NOAA developed a preliminary
estimate of the tsunami risk
to people on beaches in various areas,
including the Pacific region,
Florida’s east coast, and the Caribbean region.
Based on historical tsunami
frequency information from the 1700’s to the
present, and estimates of
current daily beach attendance, NOAA’s
analysis suggests that while large
tsunamis occur more often in the Pacific
region, over a 100-year time
frame, the potential loss of life in the
Caribbean and Florida
regions could
be greater due to higher beach attendance in
these warm water locations.
----------------------
15The seven Atlantic coast states that
identified tsunamis as a hazard did not assess tsunami
impacts either because they concluded that the
tsunami risk was low or because they
lacked adequate information on the hazard to
permit assessment of tsunami impacts.
Page 23 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
Federal Warning Centers Quickly Detect Potential Tsunamis,
but Warning Systems Have Limitations
NWS’s two tsunami warning centers quickly detect
potential tsunamis and
issue warnings, but the effectiveness of these
warnings has been
hampered by frequent false alarms and
limitations in the federal systems
that transmit warnings to the local level.
Experts warn that false alarms
may generate unnecessary and costly
evacuations and cause people to
ignore future warnings. NWS is working to
reduce the number and
duration of false alarms, but it has not
established any specific
performance targets for reducing them.
Furthermore, although the
warning centers quickly transmit tsunami
warnings to NWS forecast
offices, the forecast offices do not always
send timely warnings to affected
local areas because the two primary federal
warning systems—the
Emergency Alert System and NOAA Weather
Radio—have significant
limitations.
NWS Quickly Detects Potential Tsunamis and Issues Warnings, but False
Alarms Are a Concern
NWS’s tsunami warning centers’ goal is to
issue “timely, accurate, reliable,
and effective” warnings to protect coastal
populations from tsunamis.
Based on warning center data, the centers
issued timely warning bulletins,
generally within 5 to 10 minutes for local
events.16 The tsunami warning
centers have consistently reduced their
average annual time to issue
bulletins—from 11 minutes in 1996 to 6.4
minutes in 2005 for the center in
Alaska, and from 16 minutes in 1996 to 4.5 minutes in 2005 for the center
in Hawaii.
According to tsunami warning center officials, more and better
quality seismic data, as well as improved
analysis techniques and
computer equipment over the last decade, have
enabled faster bulletin
issuance.
While the warning centers are able to detect
potential tsunamis and issue
timely warnings, some state and local
officials have raised concerns about
their accuracy and reliability due to false
alarms. No destructive tsunami
has reached U.S. shores following any of the 16
warnings—primarily for
local tsunamis—issued to states by the warning
centers since 1982.
According to warning center officials, their
responsibility to provide timely
warnings requires them to broadcast warnings
based on limited,
preliminary earthquake information before any
resulting tsunami wave is
actually observed. However, according to
emergency response experts,
such false alarms can generate costly,
potentially dangerous evacuations
----------------
16Warning bulletins include “tsunami warnings”
to inform areas where a tsunami is likely,
“tsunami watches” that alert areas outside of
a warned area, and “tsunami information
bulletins” that inform areas that an earthquake
has occurred but a tsunami is unlikely.
Page 24 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
and may cause people to ignore critical
warnings in the future. For
example, according to the state of Hawaii’s most recent
estimate, an
evacuation from a tsunami false alarm in 1996
would have cost the state
$58.2 million in economic losses, or—adjusted
for inflation—about $71
million in 2006 dollars.
According to some state and local emergency
management officials, a
false alarm occurred in June 2005, when they
received a tsunami warning
from NWS that they felt was too broad. On June
14, 2005, the warning
center in Alaska detected a 7.2 magnitude earthquake
90 miles off the
Northern California coast. The center quickly issued a warning for all
coastal areas that were within two hours of
the tsunami’s forecasted travel
time, including areas from the northern tip of
Canada’s Vancouver
Island
to the California-Mexico border. Knowing that
it would take hours for the
tsunami to reach his community, a Southern California emergency
management official who received the warning
sought to confirm the
tsunami’s existence by contacting his Northern California counterparts
closer to the source. He learned that a
destructive tsunami had not been
generated and determined that his community
should not evacuate.
According to this official, because his area
was not imminently threatened
by a tsunami, it should not have been included
in the initial warning. As a
result of the feedback received after the June
14, 2005 event, the warning
center in Alaska has changed its warning protocols so
that it will issue a
tsunami warning for only about half of the
area that received a warning
during the June event, if a similar situation
should occur in the future.
Seismologists outside of NOAA have suggested
that the tsunami warning
centers could reduce the duration—and perhaps
the number—of false
alarms by relying more on seismic analyses
that assess the type and
direction of an earthquake. For example,
according to some state and
USGS seismologists, the June 14, 2005,
earthquake’s horizontal motion
should have indicated that the generation of a
tsunami was highly unlikely,
enabling the warning center to cancel the
warning within minutes, rather
than over an hour later. However, a NWS review
of the event noted that
horizontal-motion earthquakes can trigger
submarine landslides that can
in turn produce tsunamis, so the warning
center should not cancel a
warning solely based on seismic analysis.
According to warning center
officials, they receive feedback from outside
seismologists regarding
warning procedures through organizations such
as the NTHMP. However,
some outside seismologists are concerned that
warning center
seismologists are reluctant to seek feedback
or adopt new analytical
procedures for issuing and canceling warnings.
Page 25 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
NOAA expects that false alarms will be reduced
with the expansion of the
sea-level data network and through an upgrade
of its forecasting tools.
DART stations help reduce false alarms for
distant tsunamis because the
stations detect slight changes in deep-ocean
waves far from shore that
help forecast how these waves will grow as
they approach the coast. In
addition to expanding the DART network, NOAA
is upgrading the models
that use DART data to forecast tsunami
flooding and is also expanding and
upgrading its network of sea-level gauges that
the warning centers use to
confirm or cancel tsunami warnings. The tide
gauge expansion plan calls
for deploying a total of 16 new gauges and
upgrading 33 gauges by
November 2006.
NOAA acknowledges the importance of reducing
tsunami false alarms but
has not yet established performance goals or
related metrics for
identifying progress toward this goal, such as
tracking the number and
duration of warnings to areas that do not
experience destructive tsunamis.
According to NWS officials, they are currently
evaluating outcome goals
and performance measures for warnings and
other tsunami-related
activities and expect to finalize these goals
and measures in 2006.
Limitations in Federal Emergency Warning Systems Impede Rapid and
Comprehensive Tsunami Warning Transmission
Technical gaps and procedural limitations have
impeded federal
emergency warning systems from broadcasting
rapid and comprehensive
tsunami warnings to affected local areas. For
example, technical gaps such
as weak signals and transmitter failures have
prevented comprehensive
warning transmission over the EAS and NOAA
Weather Radio.
Broadcasting tsunami warnings over EAS and
NOAA Weather Radio
requires NOAA-owned transmitters to relay a
signal from the NWS forecast
offices to the broadcast stations and NOAA
Weather Radio, as shown in
figure 8.
Page 26 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
Figure 8: Tsunami Warning Signal Transmission
for EAS and NOAA Weather Radio
(...)
Source: GAO analysis and Art Explosion.
According to NOAA officials, NOAA transmitters
provide signal coverage
for 97 percent of the nation’s population;
however, some coastal locations
including portions of Hawaii receive such weak signals that NOAA
Weather Radio is unlikely to function.
Transmitter failure has also
prevented warnings from being sent over EAS
and NOAA Weather Radio.
For example, on June 14, 2005, some coastal
communities in Washington
and Oregon
did not receive the warning over EAS or NOAA Weather Radio
because transmitters failed to send a signal.
A September 2005 test of the
federal tsunami warning systems in California, Oregon, and Washington
found improvements in problematic transmission
areas identified during
the June event but uncovered new signal
transmission issues in other
areas. NWS is adding new transmitters to
improve signal coverage and
refurbishing old transmitters to improve their
reliability.
In addition, procedural limitations such as
the NWS forecast offices’
inconsistent activation of EAS and NOAA
Weather Radio can impede rapid
and comprehensive transmission of tsunami
warnings. On June 14, 2005,
Page 27 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
the forecast offices responded to the tsunami
warning in a variety of ways,
some of which caused delays or nontransmission
of EAS or NOAA
Weather Radio warnings to affected local
areas. For example, staff in
some NWS forecast offices did not enter a
tsunami-specific warning code
into a computer, resulting in EAS and NOAA
Weather Radio not activating
rapidly, if at all. According to a subsequent
NWS assessment of the event,
guidance to forecast office staff on tsunami
warning procedures was
inadequate. Since the June 2005 event, coastal
NWS forecast offices in
Washington, Oregon, and California have received guidance that, for
example, lists EAS activation as the proper
first step when a tsunami
warning is received.
Although the warning centers conduct monthly
tests of their
communication systems to ensure that NWS
forecast offices and state
emergency management centers receive the
warnings, NWS does not
routinely conduct periodic end-to-end tests of
the tsunami warning system
using the actual “live” computer codes rather
than test codes. Such an endto-
end test would check the systems and
procedures used to transmit an
actual tsunami warning from the tsunami
warning center to the public and
identify technical gaps and procedural
shortcomings. NWS conducted the
first such end-to-end test of the tsunami
warning system in Alaska,
including activation of EAS and NOAA Weather
Radio in March 2005. The
test uncovered breakdowns in EAS warning
transmission at television and
radio stations whose EAS systems were not set
up to use the tsunami
warning code. NWS is working with emergency
managers and
broadcasters in Alaska to take corrective actions and retest
the system. In
commenting on a draft of this report, NOAA
stated that while it supports
broadening end-to-end testing in at-risk
states it can conduct end-to end
testing using “live” warning codes for the EAS
system only in those states
that permit it to do so. In other states,
end-to-end testing is conducted by
using test codes for the EAS system. NOAA said
it will continue to
encourage state participation in the end-to-end
testing of the tsunami
warning system.
Page 28 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
State and Local Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Activities Are Under Way,
Although Implementation Varies Considerably among
Locations
The 12 coastal communities in the six at-risk
states and territories that we
visited are taking actions to mitigate tsunami
impacts through planning,
warning system improvements, public education,
and some infrastructure
protection efforts, although the level of
implementation varies
considerably among locations.17 While state
and local tsunami mitigation
plans and warning systems have largely been
developed, limitations exist
that have raised concerns about their
effectiveness. In addition, key public
education efforts have not been consistently
implemented in all coastal
communities we visited, and only a few
communities have taken steps to
protect critical infrastructure from potential
tsunami damage. Overall,
tsunami mitigation efforts have been mixed due
to a number of challenges,
including competing priorities, funding
constraints, and lack of authority
to implement legislative or policy changes.
Finally, while 7 of the 12
communities we visited participate in NOAA’s
TsunamiReady
preparedness program, nationwide few coastal
communities have chosen
to participate in the program.
State and Local Tsunami Mitigation Plans and Warning Systems Have
Been Largely Developed, but Concerns Exist about Warning System
Effectiveness
According to FEMA guidance, the purpose of
mitigation planning is to
identify natural hazards, consider actions and
activities to reduce potential
losses from those hazards, and coordinate the
implementation of a hazard
mitigation plan. All six of the states and
territories we visited have
developed FEMA-approved, all-hazard mitigation
plans, a requirement to
qualify for certain disaster-related grant
funds under the Stafford Act, as
amended by the Disaster Mitigation Act of
2000.18 These plans identify
tsunami hazards and describe in general terms
the vulnerability of people
and property to tsunami threats. Most of the
state level plans we reviewed
take the additional step of identifying
specific actions to mitigate the risks
identified, such as relocating critical
facilities out of tsunami inundation
zones. While only 4 of the 12 communities we
visited have FEMAapproved
plans, each of the four has identified
projects to mitigate
tsunami hazards. State and local emergency
managers whom we spoke
-----------------------
17The six at-risk states and territories are Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Puerto Rico,
and Washington.
The 12 communities are Seward and Kodiak, Alaska; Crescent
City and
San Mateo County, California; Hilo
and Honolulu, Hawaii;
Seaside and Gold Beach, Oregon;
Mayaguez and Rincon, Puerto Rico; and Ocean
Shores and Long Beach, Washington.
18According to FEMA, the states used FEMA
Pre-disaster Mitigation Program grant funds to
develop their all-hazard mitigation plans. In
addition, FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Grant
Program has funded tsunami mitigation projects
in Alaska and Puerto Rico.
Page 29 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
with cited resource and time constraints as
significant barriers to
improving mitigation planning.
All of the states and communities we visited
have developed warning
systems, but they have various limitations
that may impact their
effectiveness. State and local tsunami warning
systems help ensure that all
at-risk residents and tourists are warned
about a potential tsunami in a
timely manner. Most of the coastal communities
we visited employ some
technologically sophisticated methods to warn
residents. For example, 8
of the 12 communities we visited had at least
one tsunami warning siren
and three alerted residents by an automated
telephone system. However,
local emergency managers told us that
inadequate warning siren coverage
was a significant issue in many locations,
such as Ocean Shores,
Washington, and on Alaska’s Kenai
Peninsula. In addition, many of the
warning methods used by communities—such as
sirens and internet-based
messaging systems—are dependent on telephone
lines and other
infrastructure that would likely be disrupted
by a strong earthquake.
During the June 2005 tsunami warning on the
west coast, officials in
several communities noted that telephone lines
were overloaded by a
surge of incoming 911 calls from concerned
residents, in some cases,
preventing emergency managers from contacting
other local officials and
preventing telephone-based warning systems
from reaching all residents.
Some emergency managers expressed concern that
they do not have
adequate backup systems to receive and
disseminate warning messages if
telephone lines fail. Finally, three of the
communities we visited rely on
warning methods such as verbal notifications
by bullhorns or radio
broadcasts.
State and local emergency managers are aware
of the limitations of
existing tsunami warning systems and are
involved in a number of projects
to address them. For example, some of the
communities we visited have
attempted to obtain additional sirens and
replace unreliable ones to
provide better coverage to residents. For Crescent City, California,
and
Gold
Beach, Oregon, county officials obtained a number of used civil
defense sirens for a nominal cost but reported
that installation and
maintenance costs pose additional challenges. Washington state has
provided seven at-risk communities with
advanced All Hazard Alert
Broadcasting sirens, but their high
cost—approximately $50,000, twice as
much as a new, conventional siren—may be
prohibitive for other
Page 30 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
communities.19 In addition, communities have
taken actions to ensure
more effective communications between
emergency management officials
and first responders. For example, some have
purchased satellite phones
and digital communications systems that are
not vulnerable to earthquake
damages or interoperable radios that ensure
that first responders can talk
to each other if telephone lines are
disrupted. In coastal areas with high
population and building densities—where roads,
bridges, and other
horizontal evacuation methods are limited or
where warning time is
short—vertical evacuation to the upper floors
of buildings that are capable
of withstanding the initial earthquake and
subsequent tsunami can be an
alternative or supplement to horizontal
evacuation.20
Most of the states and communities we visited
have made efforts to test
their evacuation plans and warning systems,
but few comprehensive drills
have been conducted. Recent events, such as
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,
have illustrated that robust training and
testing are important to identify
problems in advance of an actual event.21
However, only Seaside, Oregon,
has conducted comprehensive tsunami exercises
involving multiple
agencies and full public participation. Five
of the communities we visited
have conducted exercises involving multiple
agencies in mock tsunami
scenarios to discuss plans and procedures
involved in responding to a real
event. While these efforts are useful, their
limited scope may not
adequately identify all of the issues that
would emerge in an actual event.
For example, in an actual emergency, traffic
control and public
evacuations may take substantially longer than
estimated. Local officials
told us that more comprehensive drills would
be beneficial, but they have
limited funding and staff to plan and conduct
them and getting community
involvement is very difficult due to the
disruption to the local economy.
-----------------------
19The All Hazard Alert Broadcasting Radio is
an outdoor system that provides both tone
and voice alert and notification to
residents/visitors by federal, state, and local emergency
authorities; an intense blue light is also
activated at each location to further indicate the
area is in a hazardous situation.
20FEMA and NOAA, with a grant from the NTHMP
and the National Earthquake Hazards
Reduction Program, are currently developing
guidance for constructing vertical evacuation
shelters.
21See GAO, Statement by Comptroller General
David Walker on GAO’s Preliminary
Observations Regarding Preparedness and
Response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,
GAO-06-365R (Washington, D.C.:
Feb. 1, 2006).
Page 31 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
Tsunami Education and Outreach Efforts Have Not Been Consistently Implemented
Education and outreach efforts are important
because plans and warning
systems may do little to save lives if the
public does not know what to do
when it receives a warning. Two such efforts,
distributing evacuation maps
and posting tsunami evacuation signs, raise
awareness of tsunami threats
and educate the public on appropriate escape
routes. Ten of the 12
communities we visited have either received
evacuation maps from the
state or developed their own maps identifying
appropriate evacuation
routes. However, only five of the communities
reported distributing
evacuation maps to all residents, either by
mailing them to all registered
utility customers, publishing them in the
local telephone book, or in one
case distributing them door-to-door.22 A few
communities have taken other
actions to reach the public such as posting
evacuation maps in police
stations and on grocery store reader boards.
Several communities have
made efforts to reach tourists by providing
evacuation maps at areas they
frequent, such as the local visitor’s center
and distributing tsunami hazard
information and evacuation maps to hotels.
Regarding tsunami signs, 9 of
the 12 communities reported posting tsunami
hazard or evacuation route
signs in their communities, such as those
shown in figure 9, although in a
few locations, local emergency managers
reported that the signs are
frequently stolen.
Figure 9: Tsunami Hazard Zone Signs
(...)
Source: Oregon
Emergency Management.
According to emergency management officials
and other emergency
preparedness experts, focusing on educating
youth—the adults of
tomorrow—has considerable promise for
increasing tsunami
----------------------
22In Hawaii,
evacuation maps are printed in each county’s telephone book.
Page 32 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
preparedness. Specifically, two key
efforts—developing and implementing
school curricula and conducting tsunami
evacuation drills in schools—
may help improve tsunami preparedness now and
in the future. Of the six
at-risk states and territories we visited,
only two—Oregon
and
Washington—have developed tsunami specific curricula and are teaching
them in schools, according to state emergency
managers.23 The
Washington state curriculum is targeted at two age groups—grades K
through 6 and grades 7 through 12—and provides
various lessons to help
students plan ahead for a tsunami and protect
themselves and their
families when a tsunami occurs. In addition, Hawaii has developed a
tsunami specific curriculum that will be
tailored to each of its counties.
Oregon and Hawaii
also require schools in tsunami inundation areas to
conduct tsunami drills at least once a year,
often in conjunction with
Tsunami Awareness month activities. For
example, in Hilo, Hawaii, an
elementary school located in a known tsunami
inundation area conducts
an annual evacuation drill in which students
practice responding to a
tsunami warning by walking from the school to
a safe location. Three of
the communities we visited in Washington, Puerto Rico, and Alaska also
reported conducting tsunami evacuation drills
in schools at least once a
year, even though the states do not require
them.
All six of the at-risk states and territories
we visited have conducted a
variety of education and outreach activities
to distribute tsunami hazard
information to communities. For example, the
states we visited have
developed a variety of print materials,
produced videos, made tsunami
information available on the Internet, and
conducted forums and other
workshops to educate citizens on tsunami risks
and preparedness. At the
community level, 11 of the 12 emergency
managers we visited stated that
forums and workshops have been conducted to
educate residents and
tourists about tsunami hazards.24 However,
only two local emergency
managers reported meeting with special needs
populations, such as
---------------------
23In 1995, the Oregon legislature passed Senate Bill 378,
requiring that at least 30 minutes of
earthquake, tsunami, and other
disaster-related education be taught in schools each month,
among other things. Or. Rev. Stat. § 336.071
(2003).
24One comprehensive education effort was
funded by the NTHMP. In September 2004, the
city of Seaside,
Oregon, launched a 9-month
Tsunami Awareness Program to determine the
feasibility of educating the public on tsunami
hazards and preparedness practices. The
community implemented five outreach strategies
to reach target audiences, including a
neighborhood educator project, business
workshop, school outreach program, public
workshop, and a tsunami evacuation drill that
included Seaside
residents, businesses, and
visitors.
Page 33 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
community hospitals and senior centers, to
distribute tsunami hazard
information and encourage them to develop
tsunami evacuation plans.
All of the at-risk states and territories
acknowledged the need for
additional education and outreach but cited
two primary challenges to
increasing and sustaining such efforts. First,
many of the state emergency
managers whom we spoke with noted that they
are responsible for other,
higher priority hazards—such as floods and
wildland fires—that occur
more frequently than tsunamis. Second, the
states have limited funding
dedicated to tsunami preparedness activities.
Of the approximately
$275,000 in NTHMP funds provided annually to
each state, the states have
chosen to use most of it to develop or upgrade
existing tsunami inundation
maps rather than for education or outreach
efforts. Local emergency
managers echoed these challenges. Moreover, in
many areas that depend
on tourism, local emergency managers said that
businesses are reluctant
to post tsunami hazard information because it
may scare tourists and
negatively impact the economy. Many noted,
however, that since the
December 2004 Indian
Ocean tsunami and the subsequent June 2005
tsunami warning on the west coast, community
interest in workshops and
forums has increased. Local businesses—in
particular hotels and motels—
have become increasingly interested in
receiving tsunami hazard
information to distribute to patrons.
States and Localities Have Undertaken Few Efforts to Protect
Infrastructure
from Potential Tsunami Damage
According to tsunami experts, land-use
planning and zoning strategies—
for example, designating tsunami hazard areas
for open-space uses, such
as parks, and locating new infrastructure and
critical facilities (i.e., police
stations, hospitals, and potable water
systems) out of tsunami hazard
areas—can mitigate loss of life and property
from a devastating tsunami.25
However, many of the at-risk states we visited
have not adopted any landuse
planning strategies to address the tsunami
threat. Oregon
is the only
at-risk state we visited that has passed a
land-use statute placing limits on
the construction of certain high occupancy
structures within tsunami
inundation areas.26 Alaska also places restrictions on
development in
certain designated “natural hazard” areas,
including coastal areas
potentially affected by tsunamis.27 One
at-risk community also has been
25Designing for Tsunamis: Seven Principles for
Planning and Designing for Tsunami
Hazards. NTHMP, March 2001.
26Or. Rev. Stat. §§ 455.446-447 (2003).
27Alaska Admin. Code tit. 11, § 112.210
(2006).
Page 34 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
successful in implementing a land-use strategy
to mitigate future tsunami
losses. The city of Hilo,
Hawaii,
developed an Urban Renewal Plan—based
on the devastation from the 1960 tsunami—that
set aside certain “open
areas” for limited use in order to minimize
the danger of loss of life or
damage to property in areas potentially subject
to inundation from
tsunamis.28
Tsunami experts believe that constructing new
buildings in a tsunami
inundation area to better withstand tsunami
forces can reduce loss of life
and property damage in cases where land-use
planning and zoning are not
feasible. Building design and construction in
the United States
is governed
at the local level by building codes that
establish minimum acceptable
requirements for preserving public safety.
Although the Uniform
Building
Code contains design requirements and standards
for fire, wind, floods,
and earthquakes, it does not include
requirements for tsunami-resilient
design.29 Nonetheless, two communities we
visited, Hilo and Honolulu,
Hawaii, have developed guidelines for constructing tsunami-resilient
structures. For example, a 2000 Honolulu building
ordinance requires,
among other things, that the inhabitable space
in buildings at-risk from
tsunamis must be elevated above the regulatory
flood elevation through
the use of posts, piles, piers or shear walls
parallel to the expected flow of
a tsunami wave.30 None of the at-risk states
we visited have developed
guidelines for constructing tsunami-resilient
structures although
legislation establishing tax incentives for
such construction is pending in
Washington.31 Hawaii’s state legislature is currently
considering a bill to
develop a state building code based on the
International Building Code,
which, according to state emergency management
officials, would
strengthen buildings against tsunamis and
other hazards.32 In commenting
on a draft of this report, FEMA noted that,
the International Building Code,
which has replaced the Uniform Building Code
as the national model code,
also does not contain specific requirements
addressing the tsunami
-----------------------
28Urban Renewal Plan for the Kaiko’o Project,
Hawaii Redevelopment Agency, County of
Hawaii, Hilo, Hawaii, June 1965.
29Most local building codes in the Pacific
states are based on the Uniform Building Code
prepared by the International Conference of
Building Officials.
30Revised ordinances of Honolulu, Ch.
16-11, available at
http://www.co.honolulu.hi.us/refs/roh/16a11.htm.
31H.B. 1022, 59th Leg., Reg. Sess. (Wa. 2006).
32H.B. 3230, 23rd Leg. Reg. Sess. (Hi. 2005).
Page 35 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
hazard. However, structures built in
conformance with the International
Building Code are likely to perform better
during a tsunami because of
other code provisions, particularly seismic
requirements.
Several states, including California
and Oregon,
have adopted laws and
ordinances for retrofitting existing buildings
to reduce losses from future
earthquakes.33 For existing infrastructure,
earthquake retrofits may
improve tsunami resistance, or help minimize
floating debris that can
damage nearby buildings.34 Earthquake
retrofits could be particularly
important in the case of a locally generated
tsunami off the west coast of
the United States, where a magnitude
9.0 or greater earthquake is likely to
precede a tsunami. FEMA has developed guidance
for rehabilitating
buildings to resist earthquake forces.35
Most of the states and coastal communities we
visited have not attempted
to mitigate tsunami risk through land-use
planning and infrastructure
requirements for several reasons. First, state
and local emergency
managers said that although they recognize the
need for additional
infrastructure protections, such decisions
typically reside with a
community’s city council or other governing
body. Second, many coastal
communities rely on coastal-dependent
development such as ports and
harbors that, by their nature, must be
situated on the coast; and in other
cases, communities have already built to
capacity in tsunami hazard areas,
and relocation is not a practical or
cost-effective option. Finally, few states
or coastal communities have adopted tsunami
building codes because
model codes generally have not included
requirements for designing
tsunami-resilient structures and few have
implemented retrofitting
projects because of their high costs.
----------------------
33See e.g., Cal. Gov. Code § 8875 (2006); S.B.
2-5, 73rd Leg., Reg. Sess. (Or. 2005).
34Retrofitting is making changes to an
existing building to protect it from flooding, or other
hazards such as high winds and earthquakes.
35FEMA-172, National Earthquake Hazards
Reduction Program, Handbook of Techniques
for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Existing
Buildings.
Page 36 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
Community Participation in NOAA’s TsunamiReady Hazard Preparedness Program
Is Limited
Of the approximately 500 coastal communities
at-risk from a tsunami in
five Pacific states and Puerto
Rico, only 25 communities—including 7 of
the 12 we visited—have been recognized by NWS
as TsunamiReady, the
primary federal effort to encourage
communities to prepare for tsunami
hazards.36 According to NWS, the program was
developed to provide
minimum standard guidelines for communities to
follow and to enhance
tsunami readiness by increasing public
awareness and understanding of
the tsunami hazard, among other things.37
Communities that meet program
standards are provided signs such as those
shown in figure 10.
-----------------------
36In January 2006, FEMA developed a proposal
that encourages communities to map and
manage tsunami hazards by providing credits in
the Community Rating System that reduce
their flood insurance rates. The Community
Rating System, part of the National Flood
Insurance Program, is a voluntary incentive
program that recognizes and encourages
community floodplain management activities
that exceed the minimum program
requirements. Communities that participate in
the National Flood Insurance Program
receive federally subsidized flood insurance.
37As of March 2006, there were a total of 27
TsunamiReady recognized communities in the
United
States, including 2 on the East
Coast – Indian Harbour Beach, Florida,
and Norfolk,
Virginia. All counties in the state of Hawaii
are also recognized as TsunamiReady.
Page 37 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
Figure 10: TsunamiReady Sign for Communities
(...)
Source: NWS.
While the majority of at-risk coastal
communities have not joined the
TsunamiReady program, we found that four of
the five at-risk communities
we visited that are not yet recognized as
TsunamiReady do plan to pursue
recognition in the future. Two of the four
communities are currently
taking steps to meet program requirements by
installing additional
warning infrastructure, such as NOAA Weather
Radios. Emergency
management officials generally agreed that the
TsunamiReady program is
a good first step toward helping communities
mitigate the potential impact
of a tsunami. Specifically, in the
TsunamiReady communities we visited,
most officials stated that they sought
recognition to increase community
tsunami awareness, and officials noted that
the TsunamiReady signs had
helped them move toward that goal. One
emergency manager whom we
spoke with stated that the TsunamiReady
recognition had “opened doors”
to conduct outreach with hotels and that hotel
managers had begun
seeking tsunami hazard information. However,
some of the state
emergency managers with whom we spoke
expressed three concerns
about the TsunamiReady program: (1) it is too
limited in scope—for
Page 38 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
example, emphasizing warning infrastructure
but not requiring tsunami
specific evacuation and mitigation plans; (2)
it should be more focused on
education, particularly regarding the local
tsunami threat; and (3) the
name “TsunamiReady” promotes a false
perception of readiness, since
preparedness is a continuous process.
NOAA officials believe that the lack of
program participation may be due
to community perceptions of a low tsunami
threat and perceived high cost
versus benefit, but the agency has not
formally assessed the program to
identify barriers to participation or
potential program modifications to
encourage participation. The agency’s 2005
Report to Congress on the
Tsunami Community Preparedness Implementation
Plan, identifies
achieving tsunami preparedness recognition for
at-risk communities in the
United States as
a vital part of its tsunami activities.38 To that end,
according to the report, the agency has
committed to work with each atrisk
coastal community across the nation to ensure
that community and
emergency management officials fully
understand the tsunami hazard and
take action to prepare.
Significant Expansion of National Tsunami Preparedness Activities Is
Occurring
in the Absence of Long-Term Strategic Planning
A significant expansion of federal tsunami
detection, warning, and related
activities, as well as the NTHMP, is under
way; however, the future
direction of these efforts is unclear because
NOAA has not developed
long-range strategic plans to guide them. In
2005, NOAA combined its
various tsunami-related activities into a
single program and is currently
strengthening and expanding certain elements
of the program. However,
NOAA has not yet adopted a comprehensive
strategic plan that sets
specific program goals and objectives, defines
performance measures,
ensures coordination of existing activities,
and establishes risk-based
priorities to guide the expansion of the
warning program into the future.
Furthermore, with the likely expansion of the
NTHMP from 5 state
participants to potentially 28 state and
territorial participants in 2006, it
will be difficult for NOAA to ensure that the
most threatened states receive
the resources they need to continue and to
complete key mitigation
activities without an updated, risk-based
strategic plan.
---------------------
38NOAA, FY 2005 Emergency Supplemental
Appropriations Act (P.L. 109-13), Report to
Congress on NOAA’s Tsunami Community
Preparedness Implementation Plan.
Page 39 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
NOAA Is Expanding Elements of Its Tsunami Program,
but the Program Lacks a Long-Range Strategic Plan
Prior to the Indian Ocean
tsunami, NOAA’s various tsunami-related
activities, such as warning center operations,
the TsunamiReady program,
and tsunami-related research were not managed
as a formal, integrated
program within the agency. The administration’s
initiative to expand
NOAA’s tsunami activities—and the receipt of
supplemental funding from
the Congress for that purpose—led NOAA in
April 2005, to establish an
integrated national Tsunami Program. NOAA is
strengthening the Tsunami
Program by (1) expanding the Pacific warning
center and National Data
Buoy Center facilities by the end of 2005;39 (2) expanding tsunami warning
center operating hours to 24 hours, 7 days a
week in April 2006; (3)
upgrading and expanding water level
observation capabilities by
November 2006; (4) expanding and upgrading the
earthquake detection
network by the end of 2006; (5) establishing a
long-term tsunami data
archive by late 2007; (6) increasing DART
tsunami detection stations in the
Pacific, Atlantic, and Caribbean
by early 2008; (7) expanding
TsunamiReady participation nationwide through
2012; and (8) developing
a tsunami forecast system, including 75
inundation forecast models by
2013.
While NOAA has developed a schedule for
strengthening elements of the
Tsunami Program, it has not developed a
long-range strategic plan that
includes specific detection, warning and
mitigation outcome goals, and
performance measures to evaluate progress in
achieving them. For
example, NOAA does not have program outcome
goals and performance
measures for reducing false alarms or other
critical tsunami-related
activities such as mapping, modeling,
research, education, and outreach.
Although strategic planning is required for
the major functions and
operations of agencies by the Government
Performance and Results Act of
1993, it is not specifically required for
individual programs within
agencies. However, our work related to the act
and the experience of
leading organizations have shown the
importance of identifying long-term
goals and establishing performance measures to
guide program operations
and help policy makers determine if program
activities are achieving the
desired results. In addition, the Department
of Commerce’s Inspector
General has identified improving strategic
planning as a top priority and
----------------------
39The National Data
Buoy Center,
under the NWS, designs, develops, operates, and
maintains a network of data collecting buoys
and coastal stations.
Page 40 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
reported on the need for NOAA’s programs to
improve how they report
and measure performance toward achieving
specific outcomes.40
In this context, a strategic plan would
provide NOAA a framework for
ensuring that its tsunami-related activities
are planned and implemented in
a risk-based manner. Our recent reports have
emphasized the importance
of federal agencies using risk-based planning.
For example, in a June 2005
testimony on the Department of Homeland
Security’s resource allocation,
we reported that the department must carefully
weigh the benefit of
activities and allocate resources where the
benefit of reducing risks is
worth the additional cost.41 Any actions taken
by NOAA absent risk-based
analysis have the potential to divert funds
away from locations, such as
the Pacific and Caribbean
regions, where the tsunami hazard—particularly
from local tsunamis—is well documented. Some
of NOAA’s activities
designed to strengthen the tsunami program are
scheduled in a manner
that raises questions about the extent to
which they are risk-based. For
example, there is little historical evidence
of tsunamis on the Atlantic
coast or Gulf coast, yet expansion activities
already implemented or
scheduled in 2006 include the placement of
DART stations in the Atlantic
Ocean, tsunami forecast modeling of an east
coast community, and
recognition of new TsunamiReady communities on
the east coast. In
addition, NOAA’s initial strengthening efforts
emphasize detection and
warning for distant tsunamis, while the
greater risk to most locations in
the United States—according to NOAA
data as well as the National
Science and Technology Council’s December 2005
report on tsunami risk
reduction—are likely to be posed by local
tsunamis. For example, the
deployment of DART stations and warning center
enhancements will not
reduce the local tsunami risk as directly as
other strategies such as
educating vulnerable populations to
immediately head for high ground
when the earth shakes near the coast.
According to NWS officials, they are
-------------------------
40National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration: Improvements Needed in the
Reporting for NOAA GOALS—Build Sustainable
Fisheries, Recover Protected Species,
and Predict and Assess Decadel to Centennial
Climate Change, Final Audit Report No.
FSD-15989-4-0001, September 2004; National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
Improvements Needed in the Reporting of
Performance Measures Related to Promoting
Safe Navigation and Sustaining Healthy Coasts,
Audit Report No. FSD-14998-3-0001,
February 2003; and National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration: Improvements
Needed in the Reporting of Performance
Measures Related to Goals for Advancing Shortterm
Warnings and Implementing Seasonal to
Interannual Climate Forecasts, Audit
Report No. FSD-15643-3-0001, September 2003.
41GAO, Strategic Budgeting: Risk Management
Principles Can Help DHS Allocate
Resources to Highest Priorities, GAO-05-824T (Washington, D.C.:
June 29, 2005).
Page 41 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
in the process of evaluating outcome goals and
performance measures for
the Tsunami Program, and expect to finalize a
strategic plan in 2006. In
commenting on a draft of this report, NOAA
stated that it will work with
its partners to begin a risk assessment
following the completion of a
tsunami hazard assessment in November 2006,
which will improve its
future ability to allocate funds in a manner
consistent with established risk
management practices.
Concerns Exist about the Management and Direction of the Expanded
National
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
Since its inception in 1996, NOAA has used the
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Implementation Plan to guide NTMHP activities.
The plan has four specific
goals: (1) raise awareness of affected
populations, (2) supply tsunami
inundation and evacuation maps, (3) improve
tsunami warning systems,
and (4) incorporate tsunami planning into
state and federal all-hazards
mitigation programs. In August 2001, an expert
panel reviewed the
NTHMP’s progress and performance under the
plan and provided a
number of suggestions for improving the
program. While the thenchairman
of the NTHMP drafted some goals based on the
suggestions,
NOAA did not update or revise the plan to
incorporate the experts’
suggestions or the proposed goals because,
according to the subsequent
chairman, the plan’s four original goals had
not yet been achieved.
Five years later, two key issues raised by the
expert panel review remain
concerns of the state NTHMP participants.
First, the positive impacts of
the program were being largely assumed and not
effectively measured.
State members of the NTHMP still believe that
more needs to be done to
measure the effectiveness of tsunami
mitigation activities—such as
surveys to measure the effectiveness of public
education programs.
Second, the NTHMP was “seriously out of
balance,” in terms of focusing
on detection and risk assessment at the
expense of working with
communities to educate and modify behaviors in
ways that could save
lives. State members of the NTHMP remain
concerned about the focus on
detection and warning systems improvements,
which are perceived as
“federal solutions,” rather than state and
local educational and behavioral
activities, such as conducting tsunami
preparedness drills, which they see
as key to community preparedness, particularly
for local tsunamis.
The NTHMP had planned to conduct another
program review and develop
an updated implementation plan in 2006. These
plans have been placed on
hold, according to the chairman of the NTHMP,
because the decision to
make the NTHMP a nationwide program—likely
including representatives
of the 23 states on the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf coasts as well as the two
commonwealths and three U.S. territories in the Pacific
Ocean and
Page 42 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
Caribbean Sea—raised significant issues that needed to be settled before
any revisions to the program’s goals and
objectives could be considered.42However, failing to conduct a program review
now means that the
program will not have vital information
regarding (1) what has worked or
not worked in implementing the program since
2001 and (2) what tsunami
mitigation activities remain incomplete in the
five original Pacific area
states with high tsunami hazards. A program
review could contribute to
the development of a risk-based strategic plan
that ensures that the
activities that remain uncompleted in areas
with the greatest threat get the
highest priority for funding.
According to NOAA officials, the agency
expects to implement the nine
recommended actions for the NTHMP and the
Tsunami Program
contained in the National Science and
Technology Council’s December
2005 report on tsunami risk reduction. The
report, developed by NOAA,
USGS, FEMA, and other federal agencies,
recommends actions such as
developing standardized and coordinated
tsunami hazard and risk
assessments for all U.S. coastal areas, improving
tsunami detection and
warning data and infrastructure, enhancing
tsunami forecast and warning
capabilities, promoting the development of
model mitigation measures,
and increasing outreach to communities.
However, because the report and
recommendations were developed without the
participation of the
NTHMP members, they question whether the
recommendations and
priorities represent the best strategic
direction for the NTHMP. All of the
state NTHMP members agree that full
participation in program decision
making by individuals with state and local
level knowledge of tsunami
mitigation activities is key to the efficiency
and success of the NTHMP.
In addition, state NTHMP members are
particularly concerned that the
program’s funding decisions and strategic
direction may become less riskbased
with the inclusion of numerous eastern and
southern coastal states
with lower known tsunami hazards. These
members want to ensure that
communities facing the greatest threat obtain
the greatest benefits from
the program, particularly since many tsunami
preparedness activities
remain incomplete and unfunded in the original
five at-risk states. For
example, in 2005, the Director of the
California Governor’s Office of
Emergency Services estimated that in California alone over
the next five
years about $19.5 million was needed for state
preparedness activities and
-------------------------
42The commonwealths are Puerto Rico and the Northern Mariana Islands, and the
territories are American
Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.
Page 43 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
about $7.5 million for local government
activities. As such, state NTHMP
members were surprised to learn that some
eastern states have already
submitted proposals for NTHMP funding.
Conclusions
In the hazardous Pacific region, NOAA and its
federal and state partners
are working to help prepare communities for
tsunamis. However, much is
left to be done to improve tsunami hazard assessment,
detection, warning,
and mitigation for these areas and other
at-risk areas of the United
States.
It is particularly important that when at-risk
states complete their
inundation mapping, they then conduct
comprehensive assessments of the
expected damage from a tsunami. Without this
basic information,
emergency managers will not be able to
effectively formulate plans to
mitigate potential tsunami impacts on people
and infrastructure. In
addition, improved technical capabilities to
detect tsunamis will be of
limited value if the warning systems and
processes that NOAA depends on
to disseminate this information cannot
reliably ensure that all threatened
individuals and communities will receive an
accurate and timely warning.
Because tsunamis are an infrequent hazard that
may be overlooked due to
higher priority reoccurring natural hazards
such as hurricanes and
flooding, NOAA and its federal and state
partners face a significant
challenge ensuring that communities are
sufficiently engaged in
preparedness activities. The Indian
Ocean tsunami, however, has created a
window of opportunity by spotlighting the
devastation and destruction
that can result from a lack of planning,
preparedness, and education for
such an event—no matter how rare. We believe
that federal and state
partners can take advantage of this current
sense of urgency and develop a
strategic approach that will ensure that the
significantly increased
resources that have been made available to
expand U.S.
tsunami detection
and preparedness programs are being
effectively targeted. As part of this
effort, all federal tsunami-related
activities, including the TsunamiReady
program and the NTHMP, should be reassessed to
determine how to
increase their effectiveness. Moreover, NOAA
needs to address the lack of
long-range, risk-based strategic planning for
these activities. Without
strategic planning and performance measures to
guide these efforts, the
Congress and the public will lack important
information about the extent
to which resources are being directed to
activities that are of the greatest
benefit to the most vulnerable communities and
to what extent
measurable progress is being made toward the
desired results. We believe
U.S. tsunami programs guided by long-term
strategic plans with
demonstrable achievements will be better able
to sustain their efforts for
vulnerable coastal communities into the
future.
Page 44 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
Recommendations for Executive Action
To help improve national tsunami preparedness,
we are recommending
that the Secretary of Commerce direct the NOAA
Administrator to take the
following six actions:
• work with the FEMA Director and the USGS
Director to create
standardized tsunami loss estimation software
to help communities
determine the potential impact of tsunamis and
identify appropriate
mitigation actions;
• reduce the number of tsunami warning false
alarms by (1) completing the
planned expansion of tsunami detection
stations, (2) reexamining NWS’s
rules dictating when a warning will be issued
and to which areas, (3)
establishing a routine process for other
federal and state experts to
formally review and comment on the centers’
use of seismic data, and (4)
setting performance goals to guide
improvements;
• work with the states to conduct periodic
end-to-end tests of the tsunami
warning system, including NOAA Weather Radio
and the Emergency Alert
System, to ensure the system will function as
intended during a tsunami
emergency;
• evaluate the TsunamiReady program to
determine what barriers, if any,
exist to participation and what modifications
are needed to encourage
more high-risk communities to participate;
• evaluate the NTHMP to determine what has
worked well in the past and
what high priority activities remain to be
completed and to help inform
strategic planning efforts, and;
• develop comprehensive risk-based strategic
plans for the Tsunami
Program and National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Program that consider
input from states and federal partners and
include metrics for measuring
progress toward achieving program goals.
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
We provided copies of a draft of this report
to the Departments of
Commerce, Homeland Security and the Interior
for their review and
comment. Commerce, representing NOAA,
concurred with all six
recommendations and generally agreed with our
findings, although it
provided technical and factual clarifications,
which we have incorporated
into the report as appropriate. However, in
its comments, NOAA suggested
a revision to one of the recommendations with
which we disagree. In
response to our recommendation that NOAA
evaluate the TsunamiReady
program to determine what barriers, if any,
exist to participation and what
Page 45 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
modifications are
needed to encourage more high-risk communities to
participate, NOAA suggested changing the
recommendation’s focus from
“high-risk” to “at-risk” communities.
According to NOAA all U.S.
coastal
communities should be prepared for a tsunami
no matter how rare. While
we agree that preparing all U.S. coastal
communities for a tsunami may be
a laudable long-term goal, given the agency’s
limited resources, it may be
an unrealistic goal in the short-term.
Therefore, we believe that NOAA
should use a risk-based approach and target initial
participation in the
TsunamiReady program to those communities that
face the greatest risk.
Commerce’s specific comments and our detailed
responses are presented
in appendix I.
Homeland Security, representing FEMA,
commented on one of the six
recommendations and indicated that while it
concurred with the
recommendation that NOAA work with FEMA and
USGS to create
standardized tsunami loss estimation software,
it was concerned that
FEMA did not have the funding or the staff
resources to pursue such a
request and that such a request from NOAA
would have to address these
resource needs. Homeland Security also noted
that the report did not
mention other programs such as FEMA’s
Pre-disaster Mitigation Program
and the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, which
can be used by states and
communities to fund tsunami mitigation
projects. We revised the report to
mention that these programs have funded
tsunami mitigation projects.
Finally, Homeland Security stated that the
report’s description of the
TsunamiReady program as it relates to
response, preparedness, and
mitigation activities is unclear. We believe
that we have clearly
characterized the program as providing minimum
guidelines that
communities can use to enhance tsunami
readiness and therefore have not
revised the report in response to this
comment. Homeland Security’s
specific comments and our detailed responses
are presented in appendix II.
The Department of the Interior commented that
the report was a thorough
well-researched examination of the nation’s
tsunami warning system and
that it correctly recognizes the need for
close collaboration at the federal,
state, and local levels to have an effective
tsunami warning system.
Interior also said that it supports the need
for a risk-based approach to
prioritizing federal investments in this
system and is actively collaborating
with NOAA to provide the hazard assessments
necessary for such an
approach. In addition, Interior said that one
area it felt was inadequately
addressed in the report was the importance of
a long-term federal role in
research to improve tsunami warnings and
mitigate tsunami risks and
noted that none of our recommendations
involved improving or expanding
Page 46 GAO-06-519 U.S.
Tsunami Preparedness
research. While we agree that tsunami-related
research is an important
issue, it was not included in the scope of our
review, and consequently,
this report does not cover issues related to
tsunami research or offer any
recommendations in this area. Interior’s
specific comments and our
detailed responses are presented in appendix
III.
We are sending copies of this report to the
Secretaries of Commerce,
Homeland Security, and the Interior;
appropriate congressional
committees; and other interested Members of
Congress. We also will make
copies available to others upon request. In
addition, the report will be
available at no charge on the GAO Web site at
http://www.gao.gov.
If you or your staff have any questions about
this report, please contact me
at (202) 512-3841 or mittala@gao.gov. Contact
points for our Offices of
Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may
be found on the last page
of this report. GAO staff who made major
contributions to this report are listed in appendix IV.
Anu K. Mittal
Director, Natural Resources
and Environment
Page 47 GAO-06-519
Appendix I: Comments from the Department of
Commerce
The following is GAO’s comment on the
Department of Commerce’s letter
dated May 8, 2006.
GAO Comment
1. Having all coastal communities be
prepared for a tsunami may be a
worthwhile long-term goal; however, given
limited resources, in the
short-term we believe that it is
important to prioritize the efforts of the
TsunamiReady program to encourage
higher-risk communities to
participate.
Page 52 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
Appendix III: Comments from the
Department
of the Interior
The following is GAO’s comment on the
Department of the Interior’s letter
dated May 4, 2006.
GAO Comment
1. The analysis of the federal role in
research on tsunami warnings and
mitigation was not included in the scope
of this report. Consequently,
we did not examine issues related to
tsunami research or offer any
recommendations.
Page 59 GAO-06-519 U.S. Tsunami
Preparedness
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